The Mathematics behind Champions League Group B

By: Peter Katsiris | November 27th, 2008

Group B is one of two sets of UEFA Champions League quartets yet to be determined in terms of qualification, as Inter Milan is the lone side to book its place in the knockout stages. The likes of Panathinaikos and Anorthosis Famagusta have been left to duel out for the final qualifying spot in the group. Lowly Werder Bremen will miss out on the knockout rounds yet again, but Thomas Schaaf will attempt to save his side – and ultimately his Bremen career – from European elimination with a berth in the UEFA Cup.

After five matchdays, the table couldn’t be closer – well maybe it could, check out Group A – as the final day’s results will surely effect each club’s final standing within the group.

Standings after 5 matches:
Inter Milan 8 (advances to knockout stages)
Panathinaikos 7(advances to knockout stages)
Anorthosis 6(advances to UEFA Cup knockout stages)
Werder 4 (eliminated from European competition)

There are nine scenarios for the four clubs in Group B, with all of the obviously including the Serie A titleholders progressing. With a fest of football on tap for Athens in less than a fortnight, Inter Milan clinched its spot in the next round thanks to their closest competitors tackling each other in the Greek capital. Nonetheless, Inter Milan will be seeking full points at the Weser Stadion against Werder Bremen; regardless of what happens between Mediterranean rivals Anorthosis and Panathinaikos.

With that being said, these are all the possible scenarios and their eventual reflection on the Group B standings based on the final round of matches:

Match-day 6 Fixtures:
Panathinaikos vs. Anorthosis Famagusta
Werder Bremen vs. Inter Milan

Scenario 1 (Win for Panathinaikos, Win for Werder)
Panathinaikos 10
Inter Milan 8
Werder 7
Anorthosis 6

Scenario 2 (Win for Panathinaikos, Draw for Werder)
Panathinaikos 10
Inter Milan 9
Anorthosis 6
Werder 5

Scenario 3 (Win for Panathinaikos, Win for Inter Milan)
Inter Milan 11
Panathinaikos 10
Anorthosis 6
Werder 4

Scenario 4 (Draw for Panathinaikos, Win for Werder)
Inter Milan 8
Panathinaikos 8
Werder 7
Anorthosis 7

Scenario 5 (Draw for Panathinaikos, Draw for Werder)
Inter Milan 9
Panathinaikos 8
Anorthosis 7
Werder 5

Scenario 6 (Draw for Panathinaikos, Win for Inter Milan)
Inter Milan 11
Panathinaikos 8
Anorthosis 7
Werder 4

Scenario 7 (Loss for Panathinaikos, Win for Werder)
Anorthosis 9
Inter Milan 8
Panathinaikos 7
Werder 7

Scenario 8 (Loss for Panathinaikos, Draw for Werder)
Inter Milan 9
Anorthosis 9
Panathinaikos 7
Werder 5

Scenario 9 (Loss for Panathinaikos, Win for Inter Milan)
Inter Milan 11
Anorthosis 9
Panathinaikos 7
Werder 4

It can be derived from the nine scenarios that Panathinaikos and Inter Milan are guaranteed to stay alive in European competition. Unlike Inter’s mainstay in the UEFA Champions League, the Athenian giants will either be set for the knockout rounds of the Champions League or the UEFA Cup. Anorthosis can shoot for the stars of the Champions League knockout stages, and become the first side from Cyprus to qualify for the two-legged affairs which are scheduled for January starts. On the other hand, Temuri Ketsbaia’s side could also be lined up for the UEFA Cup knockout stages, or the undesired elimination from European competition. Werder Bremen can only qualify for the UEFA Cup, with the statement “UEFA Cup or bust” fitting the Weser Stadion side highlighting the possible option of elimination from European competition.

In terms of tie breakers, the winners of these stalemates have already been determined. There are only four sets of ties which can be encountered, as illustrated by the above scenarios. The chart below displays the side which would win the tiebreaker, and why:

If Inter Milan and Panathinaikos tie on points…
Inter Milan would go ahead despite the deadlock, because Inter was victorious 2-0 Athens; compared to Panathinaikos 1-0 win in Milan.

If Inter Milan and Anorthosis tie on points…
Inter Milan would go ahead despite the deadlock, because Inter was victorious 1-0 in Milan, and drew 3- 3 in Nicosia.

If Panathinaikos and Werder Bremen tie on points…
Panathinaikos would go ahead despite the deadlock, because Panathinaikos was victorious 3-0 in Bremen, and drew 2-2 in Athens.

If Werder Bremen and Anorthosis tie on points…
Werder Bremen would go ahead despite the deadlock, because Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in Nicosia, and drew in Bremen 0-0.